Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
