Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
