It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
